Risk Management Handbook (FAA-H-8083-2A)
Four Scenarios
This appendix includes four hypothetical scenarios to illustrate the cycle of risk management including risk identification,
assessment, and mitigation. While similar to the accident scenarios in Appendix C, the following case studies do not include a
risk analysis. Instead, the reader may conduct a risk analysis and consider some “what-ifs.” In this situation, there are no right
or wrong answers and numerous solutions exist to mitigate risks to lower levels of likelihood and severity.
For each case study, the reader may consider the following items:
1. What are the potential hazards in the scenario?
2. What is the risk associated with each hazard?
3. What is the likelihood (probability) of each risk?
4. What is the severity (consequences) of each risk?
5. What is the overall risk level of each risk (red, yellow, green, white)?
6. What mitigations reduce the likelihood and severity?
7. What is the remaining level of risk after mitigation?
8. How does a pilot decide if sufficient risk mitigation has occurred or if further mitigation is needed?
Scenario 1: Recreational Aviation
A pilot is planning an annual flight to EAA Airventure in Oshkosh, WI (OSH) using a single-engine piston airplane. [ Figure
D-1]. It is a direct, non-stop (390 NM) from Chan Gurney Municipal (YKN) in Yankton, SD. Passengers include two friends
who have never flown in a small aircraft. The planning began several days before the scheduled departure.
Figure D-1. Scenario 1 chart excerpt.
AirVenture starts on Monday, and the plan is to make the flight to OSH on Sunday. The prognostic weather charts for the next
several days show that a large weather system will arrive in YKN late Saturday night from the west. It will generate a line of
severe thunderstorms that move rapidly east and pass OSH late Sunday evening. Behind the front, there will be low ceilings
of 300-500 feet and light to moderate rain. On Saturday, Visual Meteorological Conditions (VMC) will exist in both YKN and
OSH, with the potential for isolated thunderstorms.
Appendix D: Risk Management Exercises
Risk Management Handbook (FAA-H-8083-2A)
The pilot has logged 300 hours and has an instrument rating but has not flown in actual or simulated instrument conditions in
five months. The airplane is also technically legal for IFR, although the number 2 radio is out for repair. The non-stop flight to
OSH will take about 3:30, and the aircraft has 4:30 endurance with full fuel.
Scenario 2: Turboprop-Powered, Personal Transportation
The pilot owns a small specialized manufacturing firm, with production facilities in St. Petersburg, FL and a second facility in
Pittsfield, MA. The pilot also has a summer home in the Berkshires. To facilitate efficient travel between these locations, the
pilot owns and operates a single-engine turboprop airplane and flies as a single pilot.
It is now 10:00 am on a Friday in August after a hectic but successful new product launch in Florida. The pilot just finished a
press conference and wishes to head north to enjoy the weekend in the Berkshires before meetings at the Massachusetts facility
on Monday. The pilot plans to fly the PA-46 nonstop (984 NM) from St. Petersburg Clearwater (PIE) to the Pittsfield, MA
airport (PSF) at FL270. [Figure D-2]
Figure D-2. Scenario 2 chart excerpt.
While a family member/passenger drives the pilot to the airport for an 11:00 AM takeoff, the pilot reviews the flight planning.
The flight should take 3:45, and the fuel on board provides endurance of 4:45. The weather is good at PSF and en route, with
isolated to scattered air mass thunderstorms. However, the pilot contemplates the air traffic in the Washington, DC and New
York metro areas. In the past, reroutes occurred, and the pilot was assigned a lower altitude where the PA-46 loses fuel efficiency.
The plan includes an arrival at PSF at about 3:00 PM, so the pilot and passenger may attend a party with investors at 5:00 PM.
Scenario 3: Turbine Helicopter
The pilot owns a large wholesale business with multiple warehouses throughout the Los Angeles basin in California. All these
facilities are within a mile of a general aviation airport. To travel between these locations and avoid the congested freeways, the
pilot flies a turbine-engine helicopter.
It is 6:00 AM Monday morning, and the pilot needs to visit four facilities. The plan includes a departure from the Santa Monica
airport (SMO) and flights to Van Nuys (VNY), San Gabriel Valley (EMT), Brackett Field (POC) in Pomona, and Fullerton
(FUL). The pilot plans to make the return flight to SMO in the early evening, to arrive just before sunset. Figure D-3 shows
the route of flight.
Risk Management Handbook (FAA-H-8083-2A)
Figure D-3. Scenario 3 chart excerpt.
The weather throughout the basin is marginal VFR, with visibility of 3-5 miles and ceilings varying from 1,700 feet at FUL
to 800 feet at POC. Clear skies are forecast after 2:00 PM. The pilot has an instrument rating, and the helicopter has IFR
instrumentation, but it is not approved for IFR flight. The pilot is not instrument current. High terrain exists on the leg from
SMO to VNY , although the pilot could divert to the east and fly through a pass in VMC to get to VNY .
Scenario 4: Turbojet-Powered Airplane
The pilot, based in Springfield, IL (SPI), owns a consulting firm with a nationwide clientele. The pilot flies a small turbojet
airplane and uses it to get to meetings with clients. The pilot recently completed an approved training course and a type rating
practical test. The pilot adds 20 percent to takeoff and landing distances as a personal minimum.
A client in Turners Falls, MA has an urgent need for a meeting tomorrow, Thursday, to evaluate some engineering plans and
data. The meeting would take place in an industrial park on the Turners Falls airport (0B5). The 0B5 airport is 790 NM from
SPI. The flight planning software indicates the flight will take about 2:15 and using a cruise altitude of FL350 provides a 45
minute reserve. The weather for Thursday in Massachusetts is forecast to be marginal VFR with ceilings of 1,200 feet and five
miles visibility with cloud tops at 8,000 feet.
The pilot considers the destination logistics and consults both the New York sectional chart, the associated chart supplement,
as well as sources for fuel, airport services, rental cars, and hotels. [Figure D-4]
Risk Management Handbook (FAA-H-8083-2A)
Figure D-4. Scenario 4 chart excerpt.
The runway at Turners Falls is 3,200 feet. Nearby airports Orange (ORE) and Northampton (7B2) have runways of 5,000 feet
and 3,335 feet, respectively. The calculated unfactored landing distance is 2,760 feet at the landing weight at Turners Falls with
600 pounds of fuel remaining. The calculated unfactored takeoff distance is 2,600 feet at full fuel or 1900 feet with only 600
pounds of fuel.
After a phone discussion with the client, the pilot realizes the meeting will require 6 hours. If the departure from SPI occurs
at 8:00 AM, the meeting arrival at 0B5 should take place after 11:00 AM. If the meeting ends at 5:00 PM, and the pilot flies
back to SPI, the arrival there will occur sometime after 8:00 PM Thursday evening, assuming a non-stop flight. The pilot has
an important meeting back in Springfield on Friday.
Turners Falls has no jet fuel, no rental cars, and only marginal hotel availability. Orange has jet fuel, but no rental cars, and no
suitable lodging nearby. Northampton has no jet fuel but does have rental cars and numerous full-service hotels available. The
nearest airport with all of these services is in Westfield-Barnes Regional, MA (BAF, 9,000-foot runway) about 20 miles south
of Northampton.
The minimums at Orange and Westfield-Barnes Regional provide for vertical guidance through LPV minima. At Northampton,
only lateral guidance (LNA V) is available with a Minimum Descent Altitude (MDA) approximately 800 feet above the ground.
Only circling minimums with an MDA approximately 1,100 feet above ground is available at Turners Falls.
Risk Management Handbook (FAA-H-8083-2A)
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14 CFR. See Title 14 of the Code of Federal Regulations.
3P. An acronym that represents the three components of the risk management cycle: Perceive, Process, Perform.
Acceptable risk. That part of identified risk that is allowed to persist without further engineering or management action. Making
this decision is a difficult yet necessary responsibility for managing activity. This decision is made with full knowledge that it
is the user who is exposed to this risk.
Aeronautical decision-making (ADM). A systematic approach to the mental process used by aircraft pilots to consistently
determine the best course of action in response to a given set of circumstances.
Automatic decision-making. Quick decision-making based on experience and the expectation of a good outcome.
CARE. An acronym that represents the four risk assessment and mitigation elements: Consequences, Alternatives, Reality, and
External pressures.
CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy Team (CICTT). A group that developed common classifications and definitions for aviation
accident and incident reporting.
Checklist. A tool that is used as a human factors aid in aviation safety. It is a systematic and sequential list of all operations that
must be performed to accomplish a task properly.
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST). Organization founded in 1997 to bring together various segments of the aviation
community with the goal to reduce accidents through a data-driven approach.
Controlled flight into terrain (CFIT). An accident whereby an airworthy aircraft, under pilot control, inadvertently flies into
terrain, an obstacle, or water.
CFR. See Title 14 of the Code of Federal Regulations.
Crew resource management (CRM). The application of team management concepts in the flight deck environment. CRM
programs evolved to include cabin crews, maintenance personnel, and others. Pilots of small aircraft, as well as crews of larger
aircraft, should make effective use of all available resources; human resources, hardware, and information. A current definition
includes all groups routinely working with the flight deck crew who are involved in decisions required to operate a flight
safely. These groups include, but are not limited to: pilots, dispatchers, cabin crewmembers, maintenance personnel, and air
traffic controllers. CRM is one way of addressing the challenge of optimizing the human/machine interface and accompanying
interpersonal activities.
Currency. Meeting all established requirements.
Electronic flight bag (EFB). A portable or integrated device that allows the pilot to carry all necessary aeronautical and
performance data, weight and balance, and aircraft checklists in digital form and may allow remote manipulation of the avionics
through wireless radio connections.
Emergency. An urgent condition or distress that requires immediate attention.
Error. Deviations from intended or expected actions that are caused by the flight crew that cause confusion, increase workload,
absorb attention, reduce safety margins, increase risk, and may lead to undesired aircraft states.
External pressures. Influences external to the flight that create a sense of pressure to complete a flight—often at the expense
of safety.
Glossary
Risk Management Handbook (FAA-H-8083-2A)
Flight management system (FMS). A system normally integrated into a technically advanced aircraft that provides an efficient
means of loading and programming horizontal and vertical flight path information that can be tracked by the autopilot or
followed manually by the pilot using flight director and other guidance cues.
Flight risk assessment tool (FRAT). A way to record and analyze identified hazards and risks. A FRAT can be numerical
(scoring predetermined hazards) to measure risk or narrative (recording identified hazards, associate risk, and individual risk
mitigations).
General aviation. All flights other than military and scheduled airline flights, both private and commercial.
General Aviation Joint Steering Committee (GAJSC). Team of FAA and general aviation community members formed to
analyze general aviation accidents and create safety enhancements that can mitigate leading accident causes.
Hazard. A present condition, event, object, or circumstance that could lead to or contribute to an unplanned or undesired event,
such as an accident.
Human behavior. The product of factors that cause people to act in predictable ways.
Human factors. A multidisciplinary field devoted to optimizing human performance and reducing human error. It incorporates
the methods and principles of the behavioral and social sciences, engineering, and physiology. It may be described as the
applied science which studies people working together in concert with machines. Human factors involve variables that influence
individual performance, as well as team or crew performance.
Identified risk. The risk that has been determined through various analysis techniques. The first task of system safety is to
identify, within practical limitations, all possible risks.
IMSAFE. An acronym that represents the six aeromedical risk areas: Illness, Medication, Stress, Alcohol, Fatigue, and Emotion.
Instrument flight rules (IFR). Rules that govern the procedure for conducting flight in weather conditions below VFR weather
minimums. The term “IFR” also is used to define weather conditions and the type of flight plan under which an aircraft is
operating.
Instrument meteorological conditions (IMC). Meteorological conditions expressed in terms of visibility, distance from clouds,
and ceiling less than the minimums specified for visual meteorological conditions, requiring operations to be conducted under
IFR.
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). An international body that sets aviation safety standards. Member states
agree to formulate regulation to meet those standards.
Judgment. The mental process of recognizing and analyzing all pertinent information in a particular situation, a rational
evaluation of alternative actions in response to it, and a timely decision on which action to take.
Loss of control in-flight (LOC-I). An accident caused by the pilot not maintaining control of the airplane. Many LOC-I accidents
are the result of stalls, spins, or accelerated maneuvers.
Mode annunciator. A display panel normally integrated into the primary flight display that shows the current status and operating
functions of the autopilot or flight director.